{"id":2616,"date":"2012-11-22T16:37:45","date_gmt":"2012-11-22T21:37:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/iomaire.com\/?p=2616"},"modified":"2012-11-25T09:20:48","modified_gmt":"2012-11-25T14:20:48","slug":"ambushed-by-confirmation-bias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/22\/ambushed-by-confirmation-bias\/","title":{"rendered":"Ambushed by Confirmation Bias"},"content":{"rendered":"

It was good to go to Floyd – I got to take a break from the intellectual journey that I’ve been on and about which I wrote the post How Far I’ve Journeyed<\/a>. The break allowed what I’d read to bounce around my brain and led me in a new direction. Perhaps I should say that it is a re-discovery of paths that I’d taken in my younger years. I started re-examining the idea of indigenous knowledge and, dissatisfied with the mystical New Age co-optation of Native American wisdom, I found a partial answer in the following essay, written for the magazine Chain Reaction<\/em> by Brian Martin back in February, 1993. There is no version available that can be linked to, so I’m posting a transcription that I laboriously made by running the original through an OCR converter and then editing it extensively. I guess my contrarian nature led me to believe that all of the hype over quantum theory was just that and I think this article lends support to that belief. Essentially, Martin is saying that if we want a new kind of society, then we have to just go out and build it, one household at a time. This course of action takes a long time, but I think it is ultimately going to be far more productive than wasting time with political activism. What I found most interesting about the article is how it shows how confirmation bias and a deference to hierarchy works. First, you pick and choose to support your bias and then you appeal to hierarchy to give your position strength. Even if confirmation bias and the appeal to hierarchy are completely unnecessary.<\/p>\n

Here is the essay:<\/p>\n

Is the \u2018new paradigm\u2019 of physics inherently ecological?<\/h2>\n

\u201cA new age is coming,
\nright? The old days were
\nthe days of mechanistic
\nNewtonian physics, rigid
\nsocial frameworks and
\nbrutal attacks on an alien
\nenvironment. But that\u2019s
\nbeen superseded by quantum
\ntheory with its
\nindeterminacy, where
\neverything interacts with
\neverything else in the
\nuniverse. The coming
\nperspective is a holistic
\nworld view: interaction,
\nwholes, none of that old,
\nhateful possessive
\nindividualism. The new
\nworld view is inherently
\necological. After all,
\necologists tell us, nature is
\ninterdependent. Humans
\nshould fit in with nature,
\nnot dominate it. Nature
\nreally is holistic, and that
\nmeans society should
\ndevelop in that direction
\ntoo.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many environmentalists think they are part of an emerging new age, encompassing everything from the \u2018new physics\u2019 of quantum theory to a holistic ecological consciousness. But does it all really fit together so nicely? Ex-physicist and sceptic Brian Martin<\/strong> punctures a few balloons. <\/em><\/p>\n

OVER THE YEARS, I\u2019ve heard quite a few people say things like this. I usually listen politely. I agree with many of their ideas about society. But I can\u2019t agree that their ideas are justified by some new \u2018holistic\u2019 paradigm of subatomic particles and ecology.<\/p>\n

Ideas about links between physics have been popularised by some talented writers. Fritjof Capra, with his book The Tao of Physics<\/em>, which argued that there is a strong link between conceptions of nature found in quantum theory and strands of eastern mysticism, specifically Hinduism, Buddhism and Taoism. Capra suggested that scientists are finding out that nature really works the way that mystics have long realised: it is interactive, indeterminate and doesn\u2019t distinguish between subject and object. A similar picture of the \u2018new physics\u2019 and mysticism is painted by Gary Zukav in The Dancing Wu Li Masters<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Sociologist Sal Restivo decided to examine these claims: He found that the alleged link between physics and mysticism can\u2019t be sustained. Capra picked out certain features of physics and certain features of Eastern traditions and found similarities. But, Restivo argues, if you picked out different features of quantum theory or different features of mysticism, or both, quite the opposite conclusions could be reached.<\/p>\n

In fact, by picking examples appropriately, you could find similarities between mysticism and old-style, billiard-ball, Newtonian physics.<\/p>\n

Whose arguments should you believe, Capra\u2019s or Restivo\u2019s? Ideally, people should make up their own minds after carefully studying both sets of arguments. But very few do this. Capra\u2019s work is widely known but Restivo\u2019s is virtually unknown. Why? One reason is that Restivo only published his ideas in a densely written academic tome entitled The Social Relations of Physics, Mysticism and Mathematics<\/em>. But there is another reason. Many people want to believe what Capra has to say. They want to believe that nature is on their side. Many environmentalists want to believe that nature – nuclear processes as well as forests and oceans really is interactive, holistic, non-hierarchical and mysterious. If nature is this way, then society should be too.<\/p>\n

But how do we know what nature is \u2018really\u2019 like? There\u2019s a problem here. Scientists have no guaranteed method to determine the reality of nature or, for that matter, the nature of reality. They can only develop pictures and models to describe it. And the models they use are drawn partly from current ideas about society.<\/p>\n

In developing his theory of evolution, Charles Darwin was influenced by ideas about society presented earlier by Thomas Malthus, who described society as competitive. Although Darwin recognised a role for cooperation, he made competition – a struggle in which the fittest survive – a central metaphor in his picture of nature.<\/p>\n

After Darwin came the social Darwinists. They emphasised only the competitive aspects of the theory of evolution. They said that because nature is competitive, therefore society should be and those who can\u2019t compete successfully deserve no support. Social Darwinism was quite a convenient justification for ruthless capitalist exploitation.<\/p>\n

Peter Kropotkin, the famous \u2018anarchist from the last century, believed in cooperation rather than competition. He looked at nature and found lots of cooperation. He then used what he found to justify his belief in \u2018cooperation between humans. Murray Bookchin, one of today’s leading anarchists, has used the same sort of approach in The Ecology of Freedom.<\/em><\/p>\n

Different people can draw different conclusions from nature. The trouble is that \u2018nature\u2019 doesn\u2019t speak with its own voice. It must be interpreted, and there is plenty of scope for different interpretations. And not all interpretations are ones you might like. The Nazis, remember, made a big thing of links with nature.<\/p>\n

So here’s the process. At any given time, there are ideas about how society is and should be organised: competitive, cooperative or whatever. When scientists describe nature, they draw on some of these ideas. Then some people say that because nature is competitive, cooperative or whatever, society should be too. It\u2019s all rather circular!<\/p>\n

My view is that if we want an egalitarian society, we should argue for it and \u2018try to create it and not worry about whether nature is competitive, cooperative or something in between. Ideas about new paradigms in physics really have little connection with the organisation of society.<\/p>\n

Capra\u2019s later book The Turning Point<\/em> tells of the transformation of society towards a new ecological paradigm. It sounds attractive but, on closer inspection, Capra\u2019s analysis of society turns out to be confused and unhelpful. He has no coherent strategy for challenging and replacing the old systems of power. (Interested readers should consult Stephan Elkins, \u2018The politics of mystical ecology\u2019, Telos<\/em>, Winter 1989-90.)<\/p>\n

If you want to read Capra, do so by all means. My point here is simple. The idea of a \u2018new ecological paradigm\u2019 of physics or society is only one way of looking at things and, furthermore, it may not be a very helpful perspective when it comes to the tough slog of creating a better society. Claims about a new paradigm should be taken with a dose of scepticism.<\/p>\n

And remember, a new paradigm isn\u2019t always a good thing.<\/p>\n

Postscript<\/strong><\/p>\n

Back in the 1970s I was impressed by Carlos Castaneda\u2019s fascinating book The Teachings of Don Juan<\/em>, which describes the author’s encounters with a Yaqui sorcerer and a completely different way of understanding and interacting with the world. Castaneda expanded on his experiences in later books, describing a different paradigm for comprehending nature.<\/p>\n

Years later, I came across the critiques by Richard de Mille. According to de Mille, Castaneda almost certainly never had the experiences he tells about in his books. In other words, the stories are fraudulent or, if you prefer, fictional. The \u2018separate reality\u2019 described by Castaneda was a hoax.<\/p>\n

Now, you may choose to believe Castaneda or to believe de Mille. That\u2019s your choice. The point is that most readers of Castaneda have never heard of de Mille\u2019s criticisms. My guess is that lots of people want to believe in Castaneda\u2019s stories. Scepticism seldom makes for a best-seller.<\/p>\n

Looking for inspiration from modern physics or from mystical traditions can be a deceptive process. What is found in these quests may simply be an exotic version, a distorted reflection, of our familiar, banal, everyday experiences. Rather than looking for an alternative somewhere else, eventually we will just have to deal with our own lives and society.<\/p>\n

Brian Martin is in the Department of Science and Technology Studies at the University of Wollongong.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It was good to go to Floyd – I got to take a break from the intellectual journey that I’ve been on and about which I wrote the post How Far I’ve Journeyed. The break allowed what I’d read to …<\/span> Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,64],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2616"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2616"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2616\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2626,"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2616\/revisions\/2626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iomaire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}